Philosophy, et cetera

Holden at GiveWell has posted a very interesting analysis of Why We Can’t Take Expected Value Estimates Literally . I've always been sus...

Reading Blackburn's response to Parfit , I must confess that I found the parodic objections to 'Bramsey' more convincing than Bl...

I find it helpful to think about the challenge of skepticism from the perspective of Bayesian confirmation . We begin with (i) a space of ...

I expect to write a few posts on this topic, so here's a quick overview and introduction: We should be wary of bringing about terrible o...

Roger White has proven , to my satisfaction, that perfectly rational agents could not have imprecise credences. In this post, I want to expl...

Suppose you have no idea whether P is true. Is it rationally permissible for you to reject the following bet? (A) You win $15 if P is true,...

If you haven't the faintest clue whether some proposition p is true or false, what subjective probability (credence) should you give it...

I saw an ad on TV the other day, promising that its product would "kill 99% of most household germs", or something like that. Of c...

There seems to be an important distinction between two types of probability. Let's say there's some object O with a property P1, but...

Suppose we are wondering whether the hypothesis (S1) All ravens are black is true. Intuitively, it seems that observing black ravens ought ...

To continue on from my previous raven post , I want to further discuss what I will call "the argument from exclusion" for Hempel...